2024 networking and security predictions

Following a year ripe with innovation, disruption, and challenging macro-level conditions, IT departments continue to be at the forefront of organizational ambitions to accelerate business transformation. Generative AI (GenAI), sustainability initiatives, and other strategic priorities are set to emerge from early adopter status to mainstream practical implementation. With enterprise architecture shifting gears to support hybrid data-centric requirements, edge-to-cloud security becomes a core tenet of enterprise networking.

Prediction 1: The death of the standalone firewall

The rise of the hybrid workforce and the extensive deployment of IoT devices have irreversibly eroded the network perimeter, and the standalone firewall is dying with it.  No longer can a good “inside” be protected from a bad “outside” by a ring of firewalls.  Trying to plug the gaps by deploying even more firewalls inside an organization only adds complexity, creates room for errors, and slows down businesses that want to move rapidly.  

Consequently, the next-gen firewall appliance is rapidly becoming the last-gen firewall appliance.   On one side, the secure service edge (SSE) is replacing firewalls and proxies with cloud delivered secure web gateway, cloud access security broker, and zero trust network access.  SSE provides a compelling way of managing security for users accessing applications from anywhere.  On the other side, for IoT security, segmentation is needed on-prem, right at the edge of the network, and to achieve this firewall services are being built directly into access points, switches, and SD-WAN gateways.  Even in the data center, the introduction of top-of-rack switches with L4-7 security functionality can deliver east-west segmentation far more cost-effectively than traditional next-gen firewalls at end-of-aisle. Over the coming couple of years, the next-gen firewall market will continue to decline as these new cloud based and built-in capabilities usher in a simpler way of managing secure connectivity.

Industry Supporting Stat: As more organizations choose programmatic, hybrid work strategies, buyers are more likely to select firewall vendors that offer cloud-based security services with credible cloud security strategies. Gartner Critical Capabilities for Network Firewalls (Adam Hils, Rajpreet Kaur, Thomas Lintemuth) May 16, 2023 

Prediction 2: Zero trust principles accelerate the alignment of security and networking objectives

Most organizations have separate teams managing networking and security, and in many ways, their goals can be at odds with one another.  In 2024 leading enterprises will demonstrate how zero trust principles can be employed to align the two teams’ interests to deliver better end-user experience and business outcomes.

In a typical organization, the networking team’s objectives are to keep people and services connected reliably, and up and running with predictably good performance.  They are intended to make it easy for people to connect to anything and avoid complexity that will result in outages, latency, or slowdowns.  On the other hand, the security organization is tasked with minimizing risk and maintaining compliance.  Too often the user and their experience are caught in the middle.  An overzealous security implementation might make it slow or impossible for users to access the apps and data they need, slowing down the business.  On the other hand, lax security or a networking team that aims to please by bypassing security measures can result in infiltration and ransomware.

Leading enterprises will adopt zero trust architectures where the network’s job is defined not in terms of connecting anything to anything, but rather as being an enforcement layer for security policy.  For users accessing applications security policy may be enforced in the cloud, but for many traffic flows, particularly for IoT devices and their associated services it will be more efficient to automatically implement this policy in access devices like access points, switches, and routers.  With the right level of shared visibility, automation, and clear delineation of policy and enforcement, networking and security teams will have aligned goals and deliver a better experience.

Industry Supporting Stat: According to Forrester, 96% of customers stated that security and networking worked together to implement SASE 

Prediction 3: Measuring end-user experience becomes a must for driving operational excellence

In order to deliver what employees and customers expect, IT organizations will need to shift to SLOs and SLAs based on measured user experience.  Users don’t care what is at fault, they are focused on one simple thing: is the application they are using working well or not?  User satisfaction plummets when they are first to find problems, and are then rebuffed by IT with reports that all devices are up and operating correctly. 

To address this organizations will widely deploy digital experience management (DEM) tools, that both measure the actual experience of end users and make synthetic probes to ensure infrastructure readiness even when users are not present.  Organizations will likely want a mix of measurements collected from endpoint agents (like an SSE agent) and measurements collected by dedicated hardware sensors, particularly when monitoring Wi-Fi performance.  Ideally, these same measurements feed automated AIOps that are able to learn and then implement best practices, rapidly triage problems, and automatically remediate issues.

Industry Supporting Stat: “By 2027, DEM deployment will rise from 60% to 90% as enterprises will use synthetic and real user monitoring to enhance the user journey and better understand user interactions of SaaS applications and services.” ​ – Gartner®, Market Guide for Digital Experience Monitoring, Bangera, Siegfried and Byrne, November 2023.

Prediction 4: 6GHz Wi-Fi adoption skyrockets – and will continue to be the biggest feature of Wi-Fi 7

The barriers slowing Wi-Fi deployment in the 6GHz spectrum will be removed in most geographies, and adoption will start to skyrocket.   

A couple of years ago, the Wi-Fi 6E standard introduced support for the 6GHz band, more than doubling Wi-Fi capacity, enabling more users and faster speeds.  It’s been rapidly adopted in some segments, but others have been more cautious.  In 2024 the last remaining barriers to broad adoption will be resolved.

First, use of the 6GHz band, particularly outdoors is subject to approval by government authorities.   Although some, like the US, have been quick to open the spectrum for Wi-Fi, other countries have been slower. Fortunately, there has been much forward progress in this area, and in 2024 most enterprises will have 6GHz spectrum accessible in most parts of the world.

Second, some enterprises have been leery about adopting Wi-Fi 6E when Wi-Fi 7 is around the corner.  Now with Wi-Fi 7 ratified, there is no doubt that Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 will be interoperable, so with 6E devices and access points shipping in volume, 6GHz Wi-Fi deployments can move ahead full steam.

Finally, adoption is gated by support on both access points and client devices.  We are witnessing a slew of new devices that support Wi-Fi 6E, and the mainstreaming of 6E access points. On top of this, more Wi-Fi 7 devices are on the horizon, and these can utilize the 6GHz band to deliver better user experience with either Wi-Fi 6E or Wi-Fi 7 access points.

The combination of these developments sees a big uptake of 6GHz spectrum in 2024, and with it, faster transfers and better user experience!

Industry Supporting Stat: “HPE Aruba Networking was a pioneer in the delivery of Wi-Fi 6E and leads the industry in total enterprise Wi-Fi 6E AP shipments.”​ – Siân Morgan, WLAN analyst Dell’Oro Group, December 2023.

Prediction 5: AI will liberate IT admins

It is sometimes quoted you that won’t lose your job to AI, you’ll lose your job to someone who is effectively using AI. This is absolutely becoming true for the IT admin.

The increasing burden of implementing new technology and maintaining cyber-security with a fixed or even shrinking headcount means that each admin must handle more.   Fortunately, AI and automation are advancing rapidly, shifting the job from managing and configuring individual devices, to instead defining policy across a whole estate and having that policy implemented automatically and consistently.  AI is also able to comb through huge volumes of data to identify anomalies and recommend (and even implement) remedies.  It’s now well established that AI is only as good as its data set and bigger, high-quality data sets are key.  Leading vendors will be drawing AI insights from data lakes representing millions of managed devices and hundreds of millions of end-points.  Finally, large language models (LLMs) are turbocharging existing natural language interfaces and providing a more convenient way for admins to get the information they need.

The bottom line is organizations need to ensure that they are providing their IT teams the AI force-multiplier admins needed to remain competitive. 

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Industry Supporting Stat: By 2026, generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) technology will account for 20% of initial network configuration, which is an increase from near zero in 2023. (Gartner, Strategic Roadmap for Enterprise Networking, October 2023)